We awake this morning to a different world. Polling made it clear that the 2018 election could have gone in three possible directions. Option A: total annihilation of the Republican Party. Option B: a wave large enough to overwhelm the House gerrymander and return Democrats to power in state houses across the Midwest. Option C: a fizzled wave that maintained the status quo. … Read More

As we await the results, I’m re-posting my comments from September 15 about three ways today’s election could go. Labor Day is in the rear view mirror and the contours of the upcoming election are coming into view. Midterm elections are influenced by a lot of factors, some of which are specific to candidates and local considerations, but there are … Read More

Yesterday, we considered the risks to the nation if Democrats fail to win a House majority on Tuesday. Today, I’ll look at what happens if they succeed. On one hand, the country will be spared the prospect of an empowered Donald Trump waging an unrestrained assault on institutions he thus far has been able to weaken but not destroy. On … Read More

It’s time to start bracing for what may happen after Election Day, because things are about to get rocky—even by contemporary standards—regardless of the outcome. Today, let’s consider what things might look like if Democrats fall short of expectations and fail to win a House majority. Tomorrow I’ll look at the risks ahead if Democrats win. Given the expectations of … Read More

The outcome of next week’s election depends on whether a “blue wave” will develop and erode some or much of the power Republicans hold nationally and in the states. For the past year we have seen evidence that a wave is developing. In fact, we’ve seen lots of evidence, like: Unprecedented enthusiasm among Democrats who often sit out midterm elections … Read More

Last week in America: A domestic terrorist inspired by President Trump mails explosive devices to prominent Democrats and liberal figures, including two ex-presidents, before being apprehended by the FBI. A white man in Kentucky murders two African American shoppers in a supermarket after he tries unsuccessfully to break into a black church. An anti-semite convinced that Jews are behind an … Read More

Perhaps the best way to think about the 2018 Midterms is to see them as three distinct elections—for control of the Senate, the House, and state governments—taking place in three different electorates, where Republicans enjoy three different sets of institutional or electoral advantages, and where three different but equally profound outcomes hang in the balance. The race for control of … Read More

Shortly after Brett Kavanaugh was confirmed to the Supreme Court, Mitch McConnell said he would not rule out filling a Court vacancy should one arise during the final year of President Trump’s term, despite refusing to act on President Obama’s nomination of Merrick Garland for this very reason. When it looked like Hillary Clinton was going to win the 2016 … Read More

Two weeks ago, conventional wisdom held that Republican turnout next month would collapse if the Senate failed to confirm Brett Kavanaugh. That was before his nomination was thrust into the cultural divide over white male privilege. Some polling suggested that previously demoralized Republicans were suddenly interested in the election for the first time, threatening to undermine a key element of … Read More