2020 Update: Mid-Summer Wave Edition

Six weeks ago, I offered a comprehensive assessment of the 2020 election. In that piece, I looked at the fundamentals of the 2020 campaign and concluded that the forces responsible for the 2018 blue wave were still present and were being accelerated by Donald Trump’s response to the pandemic and protests against structural racism. Today and periodically until November, I plan … Read More

“What Do I Do?”

Donald Trump reportedly called Tucker Carlson recently and cried, “What do I do? What do I do?” in a desperate search for ways to salvage his crumbling re-election bid. There is no reporting on what the Fox News star told him, and with a single source for the story it’s possible the conversation never even took place. But the question is a … Read More

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Check, Please!

Reality collided with the reality show president in June, and reality won. Donald Trump is in trouble. His campaign is in trouble. That means the entire Republican Party is in trouble. And it will not be easy to turn around.  Events of the past weeks have stripped away Trump’s illusion of strength, and strength is his entire brand. He is … Read More

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Values

Watching this country move through what feels like a lasting inflection point has brought me back to my college graduation in 1980 and the last major realignment in American politics. The calm spring weather that year stood in contrast to an elusive and uneasy sense that something turbulent was about to happen to the political order. There was a presidential … Read More

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Will 2020 Complete 2018?

 As summer approaches, Joe Biden is in the best position of any challenger to an incumbent president since scientific polling began some 90 years ago. He hasn’t trailed in a single large-sample live interview poll during the past 17 months — something that’s never happened before — during which time he has maintained an average lead of between seven and eight … Read More

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How to Approach Extraction

In my last post, I addressed the dangers we face if Donald Trump, his supporters and the Republican Party refuse to accept a loss at the polls this November, and promised some thoughts on how we can protect against it. It will not be an easy task to preserve the legitimacy of the political system if a fair (or marginally … Read More

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Extraction Revisited

Last January, I expressed concern that Donald Trump will attempt to de-legitimize the election if he loses. I addressed conditions that I felt could lead to a dangerous post-election standoff, but when I said there may be wrinkles we can’t anticipate that could influence how the presidential outcome is received, I wasn’t exactly imagining a pandemic or an economic collapse. … Read More

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Fundamentals

In less than five months, voters will start casting early ballots in the 2020 election. As the summer progresses, polling will give us an increasingly good sense of what those accumulated ballots will say. Even at this point, we can look to national and state averages of high-quality polls showing Joe Biden with a national lead of between 7-8 points … Read More

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Some Unsolicited Advice for the White House

Donald Trump has fallen on hard times. His poll numbers are sagging in key swing states. People don’t believe what he’s saying about the pandemic. He explodes at bad polling news and threatened to sue his campaign manager. Senate Republicans are starting to panic that he’s going to bring them down in November. He feels mistreated by the public, the press … Read More

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The Fulfillment of Reaganism

Ronald Reagan has shaped American politics for 40 years. Prior to Reagan’s ascent to the presidency, the country had been transformed by over four decades of liberal policies, starting with FDR’s New Deal and culminating in Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society. The modern social welfare state was established and expanded, and the reach of government expanded with it. By the end … Read More

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