As we entered 2018, I warned of a dangerous time ahead when congressional Republicans would let  Donald Trump get away with anything to stave off challengers during the long spring and summer primary season. Absent a legislative check and with political pressures at their height, I feared Trump’s efforts to consolidate power by delegitimizing every institution that stood in his … Read More

This post is about restoring faith in our institutions. In my previous post, I suggested that Democrats look to 2020 with a message of economic and social justice that, if delivered by a charismatic messenger, could mobilize the progressive base and appeal to swing voters. There is a third leg to this stool, and it is criminal justice or, if … Read More

There is opportunity in chaos. As Democrats contemplate the 2020 campaign, they should recognize that Donald Trump has shattered longstanding political alignments, giving them the chance to reassemble the pieces to form a lasting political majority. Doing this will require setting aside incremental thinking and embracing a platform of economic and social justice that would have been unthinkable in 2016. … Read More

Longtime readers of Wolves and Sheep know that I keep returning to the theme of partisan realignment, because I believe this moment of political instability shares characteristics with other realigning periods in American politics, most recently the transition between New Deal liberalism and Reagan conservatism. The potential for party realignment was a theme of my last two books on the … Read More

Previously, I wrote about how it will be difficult if not impossible for Donald Trump to adjust following a disastrous midterm and position himself for re-election. Today, I’m going to look in detail at what the midterms suggest about the challenges facing Trump in 2020. In my next post, I will consider the longterm implications of the 2018 results for … Read More

Every president has a base, and every president lets them down. They have no choice, because presidents have to govern broadly to survive politically. This lesson has escaped the current president, and until now you could be forgiven for believing that he had upended the laws of political gravity by governing expressly and exclusively for his core supporters. For the … Read More

In 1994, when Republicans picked up 54 House seats and emerged as the majority party for the first time in 40 years, the incumbent president was self-reflective and contrite. Bill Clinton knew the results were devastating and read them as a failure to abide by his campaign promise to govern as a centrist New Democrat following a divisive and failed … Read More

Some weekend thoughts after the most important election of your lifetime. The blue wave was real. Election narratives are always open to interpretation, but when you consider what Democrats accomplished in light of the the obstacles they faced, the sweep and strength of their victory Tuesday is striking. They smashed a supposedly impenetrable gerrymander, minimized Senate losses despite facing the … Read More

We awake this morning to a different world. Polling made it clear that the 2018 election could have gone in three possible directions. Option A: total annihilation of the Republican Party. Option B: a wave large enough to overwhelm the House gerrymander and return Democrats to power in state houses across the Midwest. Option C: a fizzled wave that maintained the status quo. … Read More