Perhaps the best way to think about the 2018 Midterms is to see them as three distinct elections—for control of the Senate, the House, and state governments—taking place in three different electorates, where Republicans enjoy three different sets of institutional or electoral advantages, and where three different but equally profound outcomes hang in the balance. The race for control of the Senate is taking place on rural and conservative turf skewed heavily toward Republicans. The race for control of the House is taking place on suburban turf where Republicans once thrived, against the backdrop of a heavily gerrymandered Republican map. The race for control of state governments is spread throughout the country and in some states will be influenced by voter ID laws, voter purges, and other nefarious activities that disproportionately hurt Democratic constituencies.

Here is a handy overview of what’s in play, the state of play, and what’s at stake in the three 2018 midterm elections:

The Senate


The House:


The States:

The outcome of these three elections will determine which of three political possibilities I discussed previously will come to pass on November 7. If the blue wave is massive enough to give Democrats the Senate, they will certainly also win the House and clean up down ballot, creating a nightmare total annihilation scenario for Republicans. If the wave falls short in the Senate but washes away House Republicans—essentially, if the conventional wisdom about this election holds—Democrats will walk away with subpoena power and a new, more politically balanced phase of the Trump era will be unleashed. But should Democrats fall short of a House majority, it won’t matter how many governorships they win. An unbridled, vindictive president will seek vengeance on his enemies after a great victory, Republicans will realize they can support Trump without consequence, and democracy itself will be imperiled.

There are now 21 days left until the election, and 22 days before the start of the 2020 presidential campaign.