» Matt Kerbel

Lasting Damage

Longtime readers of Wolves and Sheep know that I keep returning to the theme of partisan realignment, because I believe this moment of political instability shares characteristics with other realigning periods in American politics, most recently the transition between New Deal liberalism and Reagan conservatism. The potential for party realignment was a theme of my last two books on the … Read More

2020 Blues

Previously, I wrote about how it will be difficult if not impossible for Donald Trump to adjust following a disastrous midterm and position himself for re-election. Today, I’m going to look in detail at what the midterms suggest about the challenges facing Trump in 2020. In my next post, I will consider the longterm implications of the 2018 results for … Read More

It’s Not About That Base

Every president has a base, and every president lets them down. They have no choice, because presidents have to govern broadly to survive politically. This lesson has escaped the current president, and until now you could be forgiven for believing that he had upended the laws of political gravity by governing expressly and exclusively for his core supporters. For the … Read More

“Tremendous Success”

In 1994, when Republicans picked up 54 House seats and emerged as the majority party for the first time in 40 years, the incumbent president was self-reflective and contrite. Bill Clinton knew the results were devastating and read them as a failure to abide by his campaign promise to govern as a centrist New Democrat following a divisive and failed … Read More

Reflections on a Blue Wave

Some weekend thoughts after the most important election of your lifetime. The blue wave was real. Election narratives are always open to interpretation, but when you consider what Democrats accomplished in light of the the obstacles they faced, the sweep and strength of their victory Tuesday is striking. They smashed a supposedly impenetrable gerrymander, minimized Senate losses despite facing the … Read More

Subpoena Power

We awake this morning to a different world. Polling made it clear that the 2018 election could have gone in three possible directions. Option A: total annihilation of the Republican Party. Option B: a wave large enough to overwhelm the House gerrymander and return Democrats to power in state houses across the Midwest. Option C: a fizzled wave that maintained the status quo. … Read More

Once Again: Three Possibilities

As we await the results, I’m re-posting my comments from September 15 about three ways today’s election could go. Labor Day is in the rear view mirror and the contours of the upcoming election are coming into view. Midterm elections are influenced by a lot of factors, some of which are specific to candidates and local considerations, but there are … Read More

If Democrats Win

Yesterday, we considered the risks to the nation if Democrats fail to win a House majority on Tuesday. Today, I’ll look at what happens if they succeed. On one hand, the country will be spared the prospect of an empowered Donald Trump waging an unrestrained assault on institutions he thus far has been able to weaken but not destroy. On … Read More

If Democrats Lose

It’s time to start bracing for what may happen after Election Day, because things are about to get rocky—even by contemporary standards—regardless of the outcome. Today, let’s consider what things might look like if Democrats fall short of expectations and fail to win a House majority. Tomorrow I’ll look at the risks ahead if Democrats win. Given the expectations of … Read More

Beaches

The outcome of next week’s election depends on whether a “blue wave” will develop and erode some or much of the power Republicans hold nationally and in the states. For the past year we have seen evidence that a wave is developing. In fact, we’ve seen lots of evidence, like: Unprecedented enthusiasm among Democrats who often sit out midterm elections … Read More

1 2 3 4 16