» Matt Kerbel - Page 15

Acela Tuesday

Donald Trump won five primaries yesterday. Hillary Clinton won four. We could have predicted these outcomes last week from pre-primary polling and the demography of the states in play. Yet as the presidential campaign traveled the Acela line, with Tuesday primaries in Rhode Island, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Delaware and Maryland, some of the same pundits who declared Wisconsin to be the beginning of the end … Read More

No Healthy Party Wants A Contested Convention

Last week, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said he was “increasingly optimistic” that this summer’s Republican convention will require multiple ballots to determine a nominee, effectively rooting for a contested convention in order to stop Donald Trump from being nominated on the first ballot. It makes perfect sense in the current political environment for McConnell to hope the convention does … Read More

Common Ground

Late last night, when I was trying to make sense of why anyone would be surprised with the entirely predictable results of the New York primary, I said that Bernie and Hillary now face an end game where their interests overlap. Let’s use the light of a new day to reflect on that a little bit, because the way this energetically contested … Read More

New York

Nothing surprising happened tonight despite the hype over big wins by Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in the New York primary. By saying this, I’m not trying to disparage the accomplishments of either candidate. They each dominated their respective primaries. But if you have been looking at the enduring trends of this endurance contest of a presidential campaign, you had every reason … Read More

Your Three-Step Guide To Navigating Pre-Republican Convention Coverage

Yesterday, the Cleveland Indians played their seventh game of the regular season. On the date Republicans plan to convene their convention on the shores of Lake Erie, the Indians are scheduled to play game #92. Think about that for a second. More than half the long, long baseball season will be history before we finally learn the name of the last candidate standing and, … Read More

States vs. Delegates

When campaigns lag in delegates they sometimes deflect attention to other more favorable measures in the hope of getting reporters to treat them like those objects in sideview mirrors which are closer than they appear. We saw this in 2008, when some Hillary Clinton supporters claimed the nomination should go to the candidate who had won the most aggregate votes in … Read More

Where Things Stand Post-Wisconsin

After Bernie Sanders’ win in today’s Democratic caucus in Wyoming, the election enters an extended intermission until the next big contests in New York on April 19 and Pennsylvania on April 26, making this a good time to put where we are in perspective. The two figures below depict the number of delegates awarded by Republicans and Democrats on each date with a … Read More

The Circular Reasoning of Conventional Wisdom

If you’ve been following mainstream election coverage during the current slog phase of the campaign and it doesn’t seem to make much sense, then you’ve been paying attention. On the Democratic side, we are told Bernie Sanders faces a must-win election today in Wisconsin, without which he would have no chance of winning a nomination that’s already out of his reach. On the Republican side, … Read More

Stop Worrying

I’ve had the opportunity to speak about the election in recent days at Bryn Mawr College and at my home university, Villanova, where we somehow found time to talk about a matter other than basketball. Located as these institutions are in the politically moderate Philadelphia suburbs, I encountered a number of people who are deeply worried about the Trump phenomenon. They see … Read More

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