Extraction Revisited

Last January, I expressed concern that Donald Trump will attempt to de-legitimize the election if he loses. I addressed conditions that I felt could lead to a dangerous post-election standoff, but when I said there may be wrinkles we can’t anticipate that could influence how the presidential outcome is received, I wasn’t exactly imagining a […]

Fundamentals

In less than five months, voters will start casting early ballots in the 2020 election. As the summer progresses, polling will give us an increasingly good sense of what those accumulated ballots will say. Even at this point, we can look to national and state averages of high-quality polls showing Joe Biden with a national […]

The Fulfillment of Reaganism

Ronald Reagan has shaped American politics for 40 years. Prior to Reagan’s ascent to the presidency, the country had been transformed by over four decades of liberal policies, starting with FDR’s New Deal and culminating in Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society. The modern social welfare state was established and expanded, and the reach of government expanded […]

2020 Battlegrounds – First Look

With the 2020 election six months away, we can take our first realistic look at the Electoral College map and assess where the battlegrounds are likely to be in November. Six months is an interesting benchmark because the election is still far enough in the future to be influenced by unforeseen events but close enough […]

Don’t Drink Bleach

“I can’t believe I have to say this, but please don’t drink bleach” — Joe Biden Recently, I wrote about the irony that Donald Trump, who was elected as a disruption agent, would be evaluated for a second term on his ability to handle a once-in-a-century crisis with competence and skill.  Since then, he has […]

Biden’s Best Options

Hillary Clinton selected Sen. Tim Kaine as her running mate to boost her prospects in his home state of Virginia and to put a moderate white male on the ticket. Although Clinton was victorious in Virginia, her choice of the nondescript Kaine did nothing to unify Democrats after her long, bruising primary battle with Bernie […]

On Wisconsin

Last week, I wrote about the Wisconsin primary, where the gerrymandered Republican legislature in conjunction with a conservative state supreme court conspired to force people to risk their health in order to vote in a special judicial election that the Democratic governor tried unsuccessfully to postpone. Republicans had hoped to suppress the vote in Democratic […]

Go Left, Old Man

Bernie is out. This shouldn’t be surprising to anyone who has paid attention to the Democratic campaign since its Super Tuesday inflection point, when in a matter of days the trajectory shifted from a probable Sanders nomination to the inevitability of Joe Biden, who had been left for roadkill after Iowa and New Hampshire. To […]

The Coming Ballot War

On Tuesday, with much of the country sheltering at home or practicing social distancing, voters in Wisconsin went to the polls to vote in their primary. The reason is partisan. Democratic Governor Tony Evers had issued an executive order delaying in-person voting, but it was challenged by the state’s Republican legislature and the challenge was […]

The Irony of Incompetence

On election night 2016, as Donald Trump was over-performing his polls in every state touching Appalachia and a Trump victory looked likely, my initial reaction was that Donald Trump cannot be president. Not that he cannot be elected president, but that if elected he would lack the discipline, depth, knowledge, skills and interest necessary to […]