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If Democrats Win

Yesterday, we considered the risks to the nation if Democrats fail to win a House majority on Tuesday. Today, I’ll look at what happens if they succeed. On one hand, the country will be spared the prospect of an empowered Donald Trump waging an unrestrained assault on institutions he thus far has been able to weaken but not destroy. On … Read More

If Democrats Lose

It’s time to start bracing for what may happen after Election Day, because things are about to get rocky—even by contemporary standards—regardless of the outcome. Today, let’s consider what things might look like if Democrats fall short of expectations and fail to win a House majority. Tomorrow I’ll look at the risks ahead if Democrats win. Given the expectations of … Read More

Three Elections

Perhaps the best way to think about the 2018 Midterms is to see them as three distinct elections—for control of the Senate, the House, and state governments—taking place in three different electorates, where Republicans enjoy three different sets of institutional or electoral advantages, and where three different but equally profound outcomes hang in the balance. The race for control of … Read More

Three Possibilities

Labor Day is in the rear view mirror and the contours of the upcoming election are coming into view. Midterm elections are influenced by a lot of factors, some of which are specific to candidates and local considerations, but there are enough overarching forces at work to permit political analysts (including me) to speculate about what the outcome will mean … Read More

Now What? – Act II

The government has re-opened but governing by crisis continues. On Monday, Senate Democrats opted for a tactical retreat and agreed to a resolution to fund the government for three weeks in exchange for a promise from Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to permit debate on an immigration measure. This allowed Republicans and the White House to claim victory in the weekend … Read More

Now What?

Maybe presiding over a government shutdown on the first anniversary of his administration is too perfect a metaphor for the most incompetent president in American history. Perhaps it was inevitable that a president whose business resume is filled with wreckage would be at the center of negotiations that would lead to such a fundamental and glaring failure. But I have … Read More

Beware the Undertow

Political events in 2017 offer many reasons to believe that 2018 will bring a sweeping rebuke to Donald Trump at the ballot box. With the mandatory caveat that nothing should be taken for granted or regarded as predetermined, the past year has provided all the necessary preconditions for a backlash which—depending on its size—threatens to undermine or possibly eliminate the … Read More

What Realignment Looks Like

Two items this weekend from the New York Times speak to the possibility that we are well along the road to a political realignment, a theme I have been writing about for a long time. First, a column by Frank Bruni describes Steve Bannon’s plan to destroy the Republican establishment if he is unable to reshape the party in his white nationalist … Read More

It’s Still A Change Election

I’d like to take a break from the ongoing Trump implosion and refocus for a minute on the fundamental forces shaping this election. Although the closing arguments of the campaign will be dominated by questions of basic human decency, we should remember that the primary political driver since early last year has been a cry for change. Dissatisfaction and disgust with politics as … Read More

What Democrats Should Do: Part II

Eight years ago, the economic meltdown gave Democrats control of the White House and Congress and an opportunity to govern in a more leftward direction for a brief two-year period. The resulting burst of government activism produced landmark legislation like the Affordable Care Act, the economic stimulus package and the auto industry bailout, although the imperative of addressing economic free-fall and … Read More

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