Leverage vs. Letting Go

The California and New Jersey primaries have finally come and gone, and Hillary Clinton has claimed her place in history as the first presumptive female presidential nominee of a major political party. Her overwhelming victory in New Jersey was expected, her comfortable victory in California was not, but even before the votes were counted on the […]

Clinton Is a Poor Fit to the Election Cycle. Trump Is a Poor Fit to the Electorate.

After months of enduring more candidates than could fit on a debate stage, the presidential race has boiled down to a transplanted New Yorker with an extensive resume and limited vision versus a native New Yorker with no resume and limited judgment. Then there’s that third New Yorker—the guy with the Brooklyn accent—who has tapped the imagination of those who want […]

Common Ground

Late last night, when I was trying to make sense of why anyone would be surprised with the entirely predictable results of the New York primary, I said that Bernie and Hillary now face an end game where their interests overlap. Let’s use the light of a new day to reflect on that a little bit, […]

New York

Nothing surprising happened tonight despite the hype over big wins by Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in the New York primary. By saying this, I’m not trying to disparage the accomplishments of either candidate. They each dominated their respective primaries. But if you have been looking at the enduring trends of this endurance contest of a presidential […]

States vs. Delegates

When campaigns lag in delegates they sometimes deflect attention to other more favorable measures in the hope of getting reporters to treat them like those objects in sideview mirrors which are closer than they appear. We saw this in 2008, when some Hillary Clinton supporters claimed the nomination should go to the candidate who had won […]

Where Things Stand Post-Wisconsin

After Bernie Sanders’ win in today’s Democratic caucus in Wyoming, the election enters an extended intermission until the next big contests in New York on April 19 and Pennsylvania on April 26, making this a good time to put where we are in perspective. The two figures below depict the number of delegates awarded by Republicans and Democrats […]

The Circular Reasoning of Conventional Wisdom

If you’ve been following mainstream election coverage during the current slog phase of the campaign and it doesn’t seem to make much sense, then you’ve been paying attention. On the Democratic side, we are told Bernie Sanders faces a must-win election today in Wisconsin, without which he would have no chance of winning a nomination that’s already out of his […]

One Million People Voted Yesterday

Even if you follow politics closely, you could be forgiven for not realizing there were contests yesterday in Arizona, Utah and, for Democrats, Idaho. After the hype and fanfare of Super Tuesday, followed by the two sequels Super Tuesday II: The Michigan Surprise and Super Tuesday III: Hillary Fights Back, yesterday’s contests felt like an afterthought. […]

It’s the System, Stupid

Speaking Tuesday en route to victories in Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Illinois and Indiana, Hillary Clinton implored her supporters to “keep contributing” because “our campaign depends on small donations for the majority of its support.” She envisioned a future where young people will be able to “go to college without borrowing a dime for tuition” and promised to […]

Connecting the Dots

Wolves and Sheep is approaching its one month birthday, and I doubt it could have launched during a more unstable moment in American politics. Much has happened since we started this project on Valentine’s Day, so let’s see if we can connect a few dots to make sense of the national political picture as of Saturday March 12: