Can A Party Win Three Straight National Elections?

As the campaign season develops, we are likely to hear about how difficult it is for a political party to hold the White House for more than eight years and how this will give the eventual Republican nominee a tremendous advantage in the general election. Indeed, we are already hearing about predictive models that rely on assumptions about how voters … Read More

Connecting the Dots

Wolves and Sheep is approaching its one month birthday, and I doubt it could have launched during a more unstable moment in American politics. Much has happened since we started this project on Valentine’s Day, so let’s see if we can connect a few dots to make sense of the national political picture as of Saturday March 12:

Michigan

I generally prefer to leave the horserace analysis to CNN, especially because it’s easy to overhype the significance of an event only to find that no one remembers it a week later. However, I think it is worth acknowledging that Bernie Sanders’ victory in Michigan yesterday snuck up on just about everyone and was one of those events that can alter … Read More

Bernie’s Coalition Challenge

You may hear commentators talk about today’s Michigan primary as an ideal opportunity for Bernie Sanders to demonstrate strength against Hillary Clinton in a major industrial state where his message of economic fairness should resonate with voters hit perhaps harder than anyone by the changing economy. Analysis like this makes perfect sense from a messaging perspective but misses the mark because it ignores … Read More

Can the Republican Party Secede From Itself?

Mitt Romney took to the airwaves last Thursday and reamed into Donald Trump, urging Republican voters to oppose his nomination in a tone-deaf plea to return the party to its rightful owners. He called Trump a phony, fraud and bully, and urged the Republican electorate to vote strategically – Rubio in Florida, Kasich in Ohio, Cruz anywhere he’s strong enough – to … Read More

This May Not End Well

Yesterday, I raised the possibility that the Republican Party has split into two incompatible parties living inside a single body. One Republican Party is traditionally conservative and has been unable to settle on a nominee from among Marco Rubio, John Kasich, Jeb Bush and a host of governors who long ago left the scene. The other Republican Party is reactionary, obstructionist and … Read More

Radio Times

For those of you who live in Philadelphia, I will be on Radio Times on WHYY/91FM this morning at 10 am as part of a panel discussing yesterday’s Super Tuesday results. UPDATE: You can listen to the broadcast here.

Are Republicans Already Two Parties?

Initial thoughts on Super Tuesday: Republicans.  Major American parties are alliances of disparate interests. They work effectively when their coalition partners can find enough common ground to put aside their differences, and they fail when differences stand in the way of compromise.  With the radicalization of a significant element of the Republican Party during the Obama years, it’s reasonable to ask whether … Read More

Hillary Is Winning the Nomination, Bernie Is Winning the Party

Initial thoughts on Super Tuesday: Democrats.  Feasting on a map that played to her strength with voters of color, Hillary Clinton surged ahead in the delegate count on Super Tuesday and moved into a commanding position in the race for the Democratic nomination.  Her big victory was expected following her outsized win in South Carolina. She swept through the South like a … Read More

What Makes Tuesday So Super?

We’re adding an interactive map feature at Wolves and Sheep courtesy of our in-house graphics designer Sharon Machlis. During the election season, Sharon will be providing visual representations of abstract concepts to accompany our narrative understanding of events. The two maps below portray the states in play on Tuesday March 1 for the Democrats and Republicans.  Clicking on the states … Read More

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