It Will Get Worse

Last week in America: A domestic terrorist inspired by President Trump mails explosive devices to prominent Democrats and liberal figures, including two ex-presidents, before being apprehended by the FBI. A white man in Kentucky murders two African American shoppers in a supermarket after he tries unsuccessfully to break into a black church. An anti-semite convinced that Jews are behind an … Read More

Three Elections

Perhaps the best way to think about the 2018 Midterms is to see them as three distinct elections—for control of the Senate, the House, and state governments—taking place in three different electorates, where Republicans enjoy three different sets of institutional or electoral advantages, and where three different but equally profound outcomes hang in the balance. The race for control of … Read More

Collateral Damage

Shortly after Brett Kavanaugh was confirmed to the Supreme Court, Mitch McConnell said he would not rule out filling a Court vacancy should one arise during the final year of President Trump’s term, despite refusing to act on President Obama’s nomination of Merrick Garland for this very reason. When it looked like Hillary Clinton was going to win the 2016 … Read More

Where Things Stand Post-Kavanaugh

Two weeks ago, conventional wisdom held that Republican turnout next month would collapse if the Senate failed to confirm Brett Kavanaugh. That was before his nomination was thrust into the cultural divide over white male privilege. Some polling suggested that previously demoralized Republicans were suddenly interested in the election for the first time, threatening to undermine a key element of … Read More

The Kavanaugh Assault

Why are Republicans so determined to install Brett Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court? That’s the question I’ve been asked most since last Thursday’s gut-wrenching, courageous testimony by Dr. Christine Blasey Ford about the Supreme Court nominee’s attempt to rape her at a drunken high school gathering. After all, there are plenty of conservative jurists with the Federalist Society seal of … Read More

Where Things Stand 46 Days Out

Last January, I wrote that circumstances pointed to the prospect of an electoral wave large enough to propel Democrats back to power in November. Last week, I offered three possibilities for how the election might turn out, each fraught with peril but some more dangerous than others. Today, I’d like to put these two sets of observations together and consider … Read More

Three Possibilities

Labor Day is in the rear view mirror and the contours of the upcoming election are coming into view. Midterm elections are influenced by a lot of factors, some of which are specific to candidates and local considerations, but there are enough overarching forces at work to permit political analysts (including me) to speculate about what the outcome will mean … Read More

What’d I Miss?

After an unexpectedly crowded schedule created an unplanned six-month absence, I’m re-launching Wolves and Sheep with a new look (and new sheep) in time for the 2018 midterm elections. Back in January, I warned that the first nine months of this year would be an especially dangerous time for the country, as congressional Republicans facing primary elections would be reluctant … Read More

I Have Seen the Future

When student survivors of the mass murder at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida say they will not be quiet until the political class brings about meaningful reform to gun policy, you can be forgiven for believing against all historical evidence that the response to this atrocity may be long-lasting. Immediately after the shooting they began rallying the … Read More

Why This Isn’t 1974

By the summer of 1974, it was clear to leading Republicans that Richard Nixon would not be able to survive Watergate. It fell to Republican leaders like Barry Goldwater, Senate Minority Leader Hugh Scott of Pennsylvania, and House Minority Leader John Rhodes of Arizona to tell the president that support among his partisans in congress had collapsed and his presidency … Read More

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