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For the past eleven months, I have been saying that we will need to extract Donald Trump from office following his defeat in the November election. My premise is and has been that Trump’s behavior as president made it a virtual certainty that he would reject the results of an election he lost and do everything possible to hold on to power between Election Day and the inauguration. You can find the complete series here, here, here and here –or just keep reading, because I will use this post to synthesize my argument and gauge where we are in the
It’s been two weeks since election day and ballots are still being counted, but enough details about the 2020 electorate have emerged to support informed speculation about why the blue wave that was evident across virtually all pre-election data did not materialize. Notwithstanding voter suppression efforts of the known or unknown variety that may have influenced the result, the outcome was dramatically shaped by Trump voters who turned out in numbers far exceeding projections and way in excess of what we saw in 2018. None of the turnout models and almost none of the pre-election surveys captured a red rip
With less than a week to go before Election Day, the Democratic presidential ticket is campaigning in Georgia and Texas, while the Republican president and vice president are in Nebraska and South Carolina. That’s all you need to know about what the two campaigns think about the state of the electoral map. Biden is on offense in ten states where strong turnout could provide him with a broad and decisive victory. Trump is scrambling to find electoral votes wherever he can while trying to hold on to states that should have been put away long ago. This is the sort
Donald Trump and Joe Biden are making their closing arguments as the campaign enters its final week, which is a bit strange to say because as I write these words the election is already over for about 40% of the likely electorate. Through early voting and mail-in ballots, over 60 million people have locked in their preferences, and as the week progresses that figure will continue to rise. Between the pandemic and off-the-charts enthusiasm to render a verdict on this most abnormal of administrations, early voting is progressing at an unprecedented rate. By Monday morning, Texas had already seen turnout
Donald Trump is scared. He has spent the month of October telegraphing his fear, oscillating wildly between grandiosity and desperation as he negotiates with himself about how to confront the humiliating rejection of epic proportions that he senses is barreling his way. One moment he fancies himself invincible, reportedly thinking of emerging from Walter Reed Hospital in a Superman t-shirt; the next moment he is begging the suburban women who are poised to deliver a fatal blow to his presidency to “please like me.” His “fight or flight” impulses are getting a public workout as he directs his white nationalist
There have been two inflection points in this steadiest of presidential campaigns. The first took place around June 1, when the nation erupted in protest in the aftermath of George Floyd’s murder, and Donald Trump unleashed tear gas on peaceful protesters in front of the White House to clear the way for a photo op while moving prematurely to open the country in the midst of a deadly pandemic. What had been a steady five or six point Biden lead expanded to eight or nine points and remained there all summer before falling back by a point over the course