Wolves and Sheep Extra is here!  Wolves and Sheep now offers up-to-date commentary, monthly talks, and more. Check out the Wolves and Sheep Extra page for details!

NEXT MONTHLY LIVESTREAM: Thursday January 6, Noon Eastern Time

Join Wolves and Sheep author Matt Kerbel for a live lunchtime discussion of the state of our politics on Thursday January 6 at Noon Eastern Time. This is a critical moment for democracy, and we’re going to talk about it. Enjoy an outside-the-Beltway perspective on the Biden administration, the state of the Republican Party, prospects for the sustained viability of the republic, and other light topics. Free to Wolves and Sheep Extra members. You can register here.

Red Rip Tide

It’s been two weeks since election day and ballots are still being counted, but enough details about the 2020 electorate have emerged to support informed speculation about why the blue wave that was evident across virtually all pre-election data did not materialize. Notwithstanding voter suppression efforts of the known or unknown variety that may have influenced the result, the outcome was dramatically shaped by Trump voters who turned out in numbers far exceeding projections and way in excess of what we saw in 2018. None of the turnout models and almost none of the pre-election surveys captured a red rip

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No Wave, But A Sea Change

It was not a wave. It was not a repeat of 2018. For a few hours it felt like it could be a repeat of 2016. In the end, it was a slugfest between two closely matched halves of an electorate seeking to impose their irreconcilable differences on the other, resulting in the election of a man who has pledged to bring them together. And it dislodged Donald Trump from power.  For over a year I had been staring at data that told me Joe Biden would defeat Donald Trump in a historic landslide, taking down the Republican Party and

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Storm Surge Watch In Effect Through Tuesday

With less than a week to go before Election Day, the Democratic presidential ticket is campaigning in Georgia and Texas, while the Republican president and vice president are in Nebraska and South Carolina. That’s all you need to know about what the two campaigns think about the state of the electoral map. Biden is on offense in ten states where strong turnout could provide him with a broad and decisive victory. Trump is scrambling to find electoral votes wherever he can while trying to hold on to states that should have been put away long ago. This is the sort

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Closing Arguments

Donald Trump and Joe Biden are making their closing arguments as the campaign enters its final week, which is a bit strange to say because as I write these words the election is already over for about 40% of the likely electorate. Through early voting and mail-in ballots, over 60 million people have locked in their preferences, and as the week progresses that figure will continue to rise. Between the pandemic and off-the-charts enthusiasm to render a verdict on this most abnormal of administrations, early voting is progressing at an unprecedented rate. By Monday morning, Texas had already seen turnout

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Minority Rule

Donald Trump is scared. He has spent the month of October telegraphing his fear, oscillating wildly between grandiosity and desperation as he negotiates with himself about how to confront the humiliating rejection of epic proportions that he senses is barreling his way. One moment he fancies himself invincible, reportedly thinking of emerging from Walter Reed Hospital in a Superman t-shirt; the next moment he is begging the suburban women who are poised to deliver a fatal blow to his presidency to “please like me.” His “fight or flight” impulses are getting a public workout as he directs his white nationalist

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2020 Update: Three Scenarios

There have been two inflection points in this steadiest of presidential campaigns. The first took place around June 1, when the nation erupted in protest in the aftermath of George Floyd’s murder, and Donald Trump unleashed tear gas on peaceful protesters in front of the White House to clear the way for a photo op while moving prematurely to open the country in the midst of a deadly pandemic. What had been a steady five or six point Biden lead expanded to eight or nine points and remained there all summer before falling back by a point over the course

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