» 2018 Election

Three Elections

Perhaps the best way to think about the 2018 Midterms is to see them as three distinct elections—for control of the Senate, the House, and state governments—taking place in three different electorates, where Republicans enjoy three different sets of institutional or electoral advantages, and where three different but equally profound outcomes hang in the balance. The race for control of … Read More

Where Things Stand Post-Kavanaugh

Two weeks ago, conventional wisdom held that Republican turnout next month would collapse if the Senate failed to confirm Brett Kavanaugh. That was before his nomination was thrust into the cultural divide over white male privilege. Some polling suggested that previously demoralized Republicans were suddenly interested in the election for the first time, threatening to undermine a key element of … Read More

Where Things Stand 46 Days Out

Last January, I wrote that circumstances pointed to the prospect of an electoral wave large enough to propel Democrats back to power in November. Last week, I offered three possibilities for how the election might turn out, each fraught with peril but some more dangerous than others. Today, I’d like to put these two sets of observations together and consider … Read More

Three Possibilities

Labor Day is in the rear view mirror and the contours of the upcoming election are coming into view. Midterm elections are influenced by a lot of factors, some of which are specific to candidates and local considerations, but there are enough overarching forces at work to permit political analysts (including me) to speculate about what the outcome will mean … Read More

What’d I Miss?

After an unexpectedly crowded schedule created an unplanned six-month absence, I’m re-launching Wolves and Sheep with a new look (and new sheep) in time for the 2018 midterm elections. Back in January, I warned that the first nine months of this year would be an especially dangerous time for the country, as congressional Republicans facing primary elections would be reluctant … Read More

Beware the Undertow

Political events in 2017 offer many reasons to believe that 2018 will bring a sweeping rebuke to Donald Trump at the ballot box. With the mandatory caveat that nothing should be taken for granted or regarded as predetermined, the past year has provided all the necessary preconditions for a backlash which—depending on its size—threatens to undermine or possibly eliminate the … Read More