» 2020 Election

The Civil War Election

During my time in Washington last month, I had the opportunity to ask an informed observer of the political scene if 2020 is shaping up to be a change election, along the lines of 2008, 2010, 2016 and 2018. He equivocated. Given how early it is, I couldn’t blame him. In hindsight, though, I may have asked the wrong question. … Read More

Warning Signs

Yes it’s early, but the Biden campaign is on a troublesome trajectory for reasons that stretch beyond how Kamala Harris dominated Biden in the first debate. I wrote recently that Biden’s debate performance undermined his carefully constructed aura of inevitability and damaged his claim that he is the best Democrat to take on Donald Trump. But his troubles run deeper … Read More

Unelectable

Ronald Reagan was unelectable in 1980. Way out of the mainstream, a product of the same conservative movement responsible for the Goldwater debacle sixteen years earlier. Dangerously trigger-happy while the Cold War was still raging. The public will never accept him. Jimmy Carter couldn’t wait to run against him. Bill Clinton was unelectable in 1992. Way too much baggage. He … Read More

What Harris Did

So much has been written about this past week’s two-day overhyped marathon Democratic presidential debate that it’s difficult to add anything new or original. We’re already seeing early data that reaffirms initial social media reactions about winners and losers, namely that Elizabeth Warren impressed on Wednesday, Kamala Harris dominated on Thursday, Juli├ín Castro enhanced his profile a lot, Corey Booker … Read More

The 2020 Map

The 2020 election will play out in 10 states: five in the rustbelt and five in the sunbelt. Three are “blue wall” states that Donald Trump narrowly won and will need to win again. The other seven states are various shades of red and trending in different directions. As Democrats begin the long process of narrowing twenty-odd candidates to one, … Read More

The Biden Divide

Now that Joe Biden has entered the 2020 presidential contest — ending the least suspenseful build-up to a campaign launch in recent memory — we might take this opportunity to look at how his candidacy will serve as a lightening rod for the Democratic electorate as it begins the process of sorting out how to run against Donald Trump. Biden … Read More

Reflections on the Silly Season

I’m watching the blossoms on the trees outside my window. They will soon turn into young leaves, which will mature, turn color, and fall to the ground. Much later the process will repeat itself. Only then will we reach Election Day 2020, some eighteen months from now. Welcome to the silly season of presidential politics, when the election is so … Read More

Why Weld Matters

Who is Bill Weld? If you aren’t a Libertarian or from Massachusetts, you may not know the former two-term Republican governor and 2016 Libertarian Party vice presidential nominee. Yesterday he announced his intention to oppose Donald Trump for the 2020 Republican nomination, a move easily dismissed as quixotic given the overwhelming support Trump enjoys in his party. And it probably … Read More

70%

“Let’s tell the truth. Mr. Reagan will raise taxes and so will I. He won’t tell you. I just did.” — Walter Mondale, 1984 Presidential Acceptance Speech “The era of big government is over.” — Bill Clinton, 1996 State of the Union Address An epic battle is coming and it doesn’t involve building a wall. We are at a paradigm-challenging … Read More

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