» 2020 Election

The 2020 Map

The 2020 election will play out in 10 states: five in the rustbelt and five in the sunbelt. Three are “blue wall” states that Donald Trump narrowly won and will need to win again. The other seven states are various shades of red and trending in different directions. As Democrats begin the long process of narrowing twenty-odd candidates to one, … Read More

The Biden Divide

Now that Joe Biden has entered the 2020 presidential contest — ending the least suspenseful build-up to a campaign launch in recent memory — we might take this opportunity to look at how his candidacy will serve as a lightening rod for the Democratic electorate as it begins the process of sorting out how to run against Donald Trump. Biden … Read More

Reflections on the Silly Season

I’m watching the blossoms on the trees outside my window. They will soon turn into young leaves, which will mature, turn color, and fall to the ground. Much later the process will repeat itself. Only then will we reach Election Day 2020, some eighteen months from now. Welcome to the silly season of presidential politics, when the election is so … Read More

Why Weld Matters

Who is Bill Weld? If you aren’t a Libertarian or from Massachusetts, you may not know the former two-term Republican governor and 2016 Libertarian Party vice presidential nominee. Yesterday he announced his intention to oppose Donald Trump for the 2020 Republican nomination, a move easily dismissed as quixotic given the overwhelming support Trump enjoys in his party. And it probably … Read More

70%

“Let’s tell the truth. Mr. Reagan will raise taxes and so will I. He won’t tell you. I just did.” — Walter Mondale, 1984 Presidential Acceptance Speech “The era of big government is over.” — Bill Clinton, 1996 State of the Union Address An epic battle is coming and it doesn’t involve building a wall. We are at a paradigm-challenging … Read More

Go Big, Democrats

There is opportunity in chaos. As Democrats contemplate the 2020 campaign, they should recognize that Donald Trump has shattered longstanding political alignments, giving them the chance to reassemble the pieces to form a lasting political majority. Doing this will require setting aside incremental thinking and embracing a platform of economic and social justice that would have been unthinkable in 2016. … Read More

Lasting Damage

Longtime readers of Wolves and Sheep know that I keep returning to the theme of partisan realignment, because I believe this moment of political instability shares characteristics with other realigning periods in American politics, most recently the transition between New Deal liberalism and Reagan conservatism. The potential for party realignment was a theme of my last two books on the … Read More

2020 Blues

Previously, I wrote about how it will be difficult if not impossible for Donald Trump to adjust following a disastrous midterm and position himself for re-election. Today, I’m going to look in detail at what the midterms suggest about the challenges facing Trump in 2020. In my next post, I will consider the longterm implications of the 2018 results for … Read More

It’s Not About That Base

Every president has a base, and every president lets them down. They have no choice, because presidents have to govern broadly to survive politically. This lesson has escaped the current president, and until now you could be forgiven for believing that he had upended the laws of political gravity by governing expressly and exclusively for his core supporters. For the … Read More

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