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2020 Battlegrounds – First Look

With the 2020 election six months away, we can take our first realistic look at the Electoral College map and assess where the battlegrounds are likely to be in November. Six months is an interesting benchmark because the election is still far enough in the future to be influenced by unforeseen events but close enough for us to have a … Read More

Don’t Drink Bleach

“I can’t believe I have to say this, but please don’t drink bleach” — Joe Biden Recently, I wrote about the irony that Donald Trump, who was elected as a disruption agent, would be evaluated for a second term on his ability to handle a once-in-a-century crisis with competence and skill.  Since then, he has chosen to put his ineptitude … Read More

Intensity

More on the latest polls by way of a quick lesson on public opinion. Over the past weeks as polls have tightened, it has been tempting to assume that people are changing their minds and moving their support from Clinton to Trump. It’s intuitive to believe that two candidates are moving closer to each other because one is picking up … Read More

Ohio

The past few weeks have been hard on the Clinton campaign and it’s showing up in the polls as an erosion of support nationwide. But only in the past few days have I started receiving panicky email from liberal and #NeverTrump readers finding themselves for the first time imagining a Trump presidency as more than a reality TV plot turn. … Read More

About Those Polls

Labor Day is behind us and we are about to be bombarded by post-holiday national and statewide polls marking the traditional start of the general election campaign. Of course, the notion that the campaign begins in the fall is a fiction left over from a time when presidential candidates declared their intentions in the same calendar year as the election. In reality, … Read More

Polls

Washington is preoccupied with polls, which is one reason why so much election coverage rides on the release of new polling data. Political reporters love polls because they make for an easy narrative hook, and the investment in polling by large news organizations guarantees headlines. Candidates love pointing to polls to build momentum for their campaigns, and there are enough … Read More