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Storm Surge Watch In Effect Through Tuesday

With less than a week to go before Election Day, the Democratic presidential ticket is campaigning in Georgia and Texas, while the Republican president and vice president are in Nebraska and South Carolina. That’s all you need to know about what the two campaigns think about the state of the electoral map. Biden is on offense in ten states where … Read More

Closing Arguments

Donald Trump and Joe Biden are making their closing arguments as the campaign enters its final week, which is a bit strange to say because as I write these words the election is already over for about 40% of the likely electorate. Through early voting and mail-in ballots, over 60 million people have locked in their preferences, and as the … Read More

2020 Update: Mid-Summer Wave Edition

Six weeks ago, I offered a comprehensive assessment of the 2020 election. In that piece, I looked at the fundamentals of the 2020 campaign and concluded that the forces responsible for the 2018 blue wave were still present and were being accelerated by Donald Trump’s response to the pandemic and protests against structural racism. Today and periodically until November, I plan … Read More

Will 2020 Complete 2018?

 As summer approaches, Joe Biden is in the best position of any challenger to an incumbent president since scientific polling began some 90 years ago. He hasn’t trailed in a single large-sample live interview poll during the past 17 months — something that’s never happened before — during which time he has maintained an average lead of between seven and eight … Read More

2020 Battlegrounds – First Look

With the 2020 election six months away, we can take our first realistic look at the Electoral College map and assess where the battlegrounds are likely to be in November. Six months is an interesting benchmark because the election is still far enough in the future to be influenced by unforeseen events but close enough for us to have a … Read More

Don’t Drink Bleach

“I can’t believe I have to say this, but please don’t drink bleach” — Joe Biden Recently, I wrote about the irony that Donald Trump, who was elected as a disruption agent, would be evaluated for a second term on his ability to handle a once-in-a-century crisis with competence and skill.  Since then, he has chosen to put his ineptitude … Read More

Intensity

More on the latest polls by way of a quick lesson on public opinion. Over the past weeks as polls have tightened, it has been tempting to assume that people are changing their minds and moving their support from Clinton to Trump. It’s intuitive to believe that two candidates are moving closer to each other because one is picking up … Read More

Ohio

The past few weeks have been hard on the Clinton campaign and it’s showing up in the polls as an erosion of support nationwide. But only in the past few days have I started receiving panicky email from liberal and #NeverTrump readers finding themselves for the first time imagining a Trump presidency as more than a reality TV plot turn. … Read More

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