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2020 Update: Mid-Summer Wave Edition

Six weeks ago, I offered a comprehensive assessment of the 2020 election. In that piece, I looked at the fundamentals of the 2020 campaign and concluded that the forces responsible for the 2018 blue wave were still present and were being accelerated by Donald Trump’s response to the pandemic and protests against structural racism. Today and periodically until November, I plan … Read More

“What Do I Do?”

Donald Trump reportedly called Tucker Carlson recently and cried, “What do I do? What do I do?” in a desperate search for ways to salvage his crumbling re-election bid. There is no reporting on what the Fox News star told him, and with a single source for the story it’s possible the conversation never even took place. But the question is a … Read More

Check, Please!

Reality collided with the reality show president in June, and reality won. Donald Trump is in trouble. His campaign is in trouble. That means the entire Republican Party is in trouble. And it will not be easy to turn around.  Events of the past weeks have stripped away Trump’s illusion of strength, and strength is his entire brand. He is … Read More

Will 2020 Complete 2018?

 As summer approaches, Joe Biden is in the best position of any challenger to an incumbent president since scientific polling began some 90 years ago. He hasn’t trailed in a single large-sample live interview poll during the past 17 months — something that’s never happened before — during which time he has maintained an average lead of between seven and eight … Read More

Extraction Revisited

Last January, I expressed concern that Donald Trump will attempt to de-legitimize the election if he loses. I addressed conditions that I felt could lead to a dangerous post-election standoff, but when I said there may be wrinkles we can’t anticipate that could influence how the presidential outcome is received, I wasn’t exactly imagining a pandemic or an economic collapse. … Read More

The Fulfillment of Reaganism

Ronald Reagan has shaped American politics for 40 years. Prior to Reagan’s ascent to the presidency, the country had been transformed by over four decades of liberal policies, starting with FDR’s New Deal and culminating in Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society. The modern social welfare state was established and expanded, and the reach of government expanded with it. By the end … Read More

Live Free and Die

In an attempt to perpetuate the politics of grievance essential to Donald Trump’s political brand, right-wing groups have been orchestrating protests against Democratic governors who have implemented stay at home orders to control the spread of the coronavirus pandemic. These protests, which in past days have included obstructing health care workers and assembling without regard to social distancing, are irresponsible … Read More

On Wisconsin

Last week, I wrote about the Wisconsin primary, where the gerrymandered Republican legislature in conjunction with a conservative state supreme court conspired to force people to risk their health in order to vote in a special judicial election that the Democratic governor tried unsuccessfully to postpone. Republicans had hoped to suppress the vote in Democratic strongholds and tilt the playing … Read More

The Coming Ballot War

On Tuesday, with much of the country sheltering at home or practicing social distancing, voters in Wisconsin went to the polls to vote in their primary. The reason is partisan. Democratic Governor Tony Evers had issued an executive order delaying in-person voting, but it was challenged by the state’s Republican legislature and the challenge was upheld along partisan lines by … Read More

The Irony of Incompetence

On election night 2016, as Donald Trump was over-performing his polls in every state touching Appalachia and a Trump victory looked likely, my initial reaction was that Donald Trump cannot be president. Not that he cannot be elected president, but that if elected he would lack the discipline, depth, knowledge, skills and interest necessary to engage in the hard work … Read More

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